Week 15 Saturday Night Preview: Patriots at Colts
Kickoff 8.20pm ET, 5.30pm PT, 1.20am GMT (Sunday Morning)
How do you beat the Colts?
Put the game in the hands of their amazingly average QB. Usually when you play a good team, which the Colts are, thanks to a great running game and good coaching, you have to wary of a set up. Bring the defence up to the line, make your opponent commit to stopping the run and then take a deep shot with your WRs.
That’s NFL offence 101. To make that work, your QB has to be able to hit a deep route with consistency, Wentz is 16th in air yards average at 4.2, he’s 14th in passes over 30 yards, and what’s worse, is he’s 24th in completion percentage. His coaching staff are saying to the world that they don’t trust him enough to put the ball in his hands and expect him to win a game. One of the first things I learnt about the NFL was that if you are not accurate in the NFL, after your first season, that means that your high school coach couldn’t make you accurate, your college coach couldn’t make you accurate and now your NFL coaches are your last hope, Wentz has been in the league for 6 years, and his completion percentage is 62% - Andy Dalton, Davis Mills, Tim Boyle and Josh Johnson all have better completion percentages than him. He’s just not that good.
The Patriots are coming into todays game with a week off, and having won 7 games straight. In those 7 games the defence has given up on average 10.4 points per game. This New England Patriots team is a hybrid of many styles of football. When the wind was howling and the Bills couldn’t stop the Patriots running game, it was because the Patriots have perfected the Navy offence, run it out of multiple formations with extra linemen and straight up muscle your opponent into submission. Against the Browns, the Patriots had 30 first downs - that’s a lot, that means that you’re literally doing whatever you want and your opponent doesn’t know how to slow you down. The Patriots game plan was simply to run the ball and keep the defence guessing on passing downs, the Patriots had 4 different receivers with 4 catches.
The Patriots played a similar opponent when they matched up with the Titans a few weeks back, in the game the Patriots went toe-to-toe with the Titans running game, and while the Titans ran for 270 yards and 1 TD, the Patriots stopped the passing game and made Ryan Tannehill try and beat them, he couldn’t. He passed for less than 100 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT. You can bet we’ll see a repeat of this game for the Patriots.
Prediction (45-27 through week 14)
I have seen enough of the Patriots in my life that I know when they are on a run, and this Patriots team is built for anything the Colts throw at them. The Patriots defence has given up a league best 6 TDs all season, the Colts have the second most running TDs, when it’s strength v strength, the tie always goes to the better coaching, Bill Belichick has been a professional coach since 1975… in 1975 Trevor Brooking scored for West Ham United in the FA Cup final, Niki Lauda won the F1 World Championship and the Cincinnati Reds beat the Red Sox in the World Series, since those events took place, Bill has been coaching full time. Never doubt the man.
Final Score: Patriots 34 - 17 Colts
Tip
I’d take the Patriots straight up 11/10, and Hunter Henry for an anytime TD at 12/5. Henry has 7 TDs this season and is due another, he’s been without a TD since week 11.
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