Week 15 NFL Sunday Preview
Game 1: Titans at Steelers
Kickoff: 1:00pm ET, 10am PT, 6pm GMT
What to make of it all?
This NFL season is trying to break my heart. There is little to no consistency, from any team. The Titans have beaten the Cardinals (10-3) and lost to the Texans (2-10), the Steelers have beaten the Ravens (8-5) and tied the Lions (1-10-1). Every week it seems like the NFL wants to make idiots like me, who try to pick games, look even more stupid.
This game is a match-up of two teams that have about as much consistency as a government COVID protocol. The only thing you can be sure of with both of these teams, is that at some stage, it will get ugly. The Steelers played their worst game when facing the Lions, but some might say that their performance against the Bengals was even uglier. They lost that game 41-10 but they didn’t land a glove on Cincinnati that day. The Bengals complete 20 out of 25 passes, they ran for nearly 200 yards and kept the Steelers offence off the field by completing long drives that just took the life and will out of the Steelers.
What makes matters worse for the Steelers is that game was a blue print for how teams will attack Ben Roethlisberger - rush four and make Ben throw the ball outside the numbers, in that game both INTs he threw were picked off on the numbers, Ben can throw the ball, maybe 35-40 yards, but when he has to force it 25 yards to the outside numbers with pace, the ball seems to be getting thrown by 3 year old.
The Titans might feel like they can beat up on a wounded animal, but their recent run of form has been very inconsistent. They haven beaten 5 of last years playoff teams in a row, including the Chiefs and Rams. However in their last 3 games, they got a resounding defeat at the hands of New England and the Texans. Losing to the Patriots isn’t surprising, but it is shocking for the Titans to lose to the Texans. The Titans have some good players coming back into the fold, but you have to wonder how limiting it is to constantly be plugging holes in your team due to injury. They have had inconsistent lineups for weeks and this has to affect the chemistry of the players.
The upside for the Titans is that they have Julio Jones playing, Ryan Tannihill can only do so much, but with Jones back in the lineup last week, it adds the high level route running that you need to keep the rest of your opponents defenders on their toes. With Jones, the other WRs on the Titans now have the chance to go up against lesser quality DBs and this should provide the Titans with a wider playbook to call from.
Prediction (45-27 through week 14)
This game is finally balanced, but the edge would have to go to the Titans. The Titans are a run first offence, one of the best in the league, and even without their best running back, Derrick Henry, they can still generate 137 yards/game, while the Steelers defence is giving up an average of 139 yards/game. It would be fair to say that the Titans will try and run to win, but they still need plays from their QB, if he can stay above average in this game, it should put the Titans over the line.
The Steelers need zero mistakes from Ben, they have a limited running game, even with a great running back performance from their rookie, Najee Harris this year, they still struggle to score points, they are 22nd in points per drive and the same in points per game (the Titans are 15th in both these categories). The ceiling for the Steelers is the same as the floor for the Titans, but the Titans should come out on top.
Final Score: Titans 24 - Steelers 20
Tip
Ben has been getting the best out of Pat Freiermuth this season, he’s been the first or second target for Ben in most red zone situations this season, would be a good bet for an anytime TD
Game 2: Packers at Ravens
Kickoff: 4:25pm ET, 1:25pm PT, 9.25pm GMT
The Ravens are a confusing bunch right now. They use to be the most effective offences in the league, but have scored over 20 points only 2 times in the last 7 games - in a loss to the Browns and a shootout with the Vikings. They are also going to be waiting on the availability of QB Lamar Jackson, the former MVP has an ankle sprain that kept him out of most of that lose to the Browns, and hasn’t practiced all week. Even if he does play, with the ankle issue, it would be a worry to send him out against the Packers front line who have registered 2 sacks in each of their last 4 games and they also have 43 QB knockdowns from one of the least amount of blitzes in the league. They are getting pressure on the QB, so the Ravens will be asking themselves if it’s wise to send an injured player out to the wolves.
That is one problem for the Ravens, the other is their lack of scoring, because even if they do have a good defence, this Packers team is hitting their stride at the right time. Even with multiple mixups and mistakes against the Bears last week, the Packers still managed to overcome those mistakes and put up 45 points against the Bears. Even if the Ravens can play better defence than the Bears did, can they limit the Packers to 30 points? Maybe 28? Can the Ravens score 29 or 31 points? The evidence over the last few weeks is no, they can’t. The Ravens are converting around 35% of their 3rd downs, meaning they have to risk going on 4th down, and also that they are likely to take deep shots down field knowing that they are getting into 3rd and long situations that are leading to failed 3rd down conversions, this in turn is leading them to turn the ball over more, they are 5th in the league with 14 INTs, their passing game has slowly diminished as the weeks have gone bye.
As this is a fixture that only happens once every 4 years (out of conference teams), we are likely to see either a tight game or a blow out for the Packers. The only way the Ravens can force a blow out win over the Packers would be with Lamar Jackson at full strength.
Prediction
With the Ravens having lost their best DB, and looking like they are going to be either playing a backup QB or a limited QB, this game looks like a Packers win. Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 1033 yards and 10 touchdowns in his last 3 games - not to mention the rushing TD he got against the Rams. This could be another of those games, the Ravens have 8 defensive backs out for the rest of the season, the Packers will be targeting some players that have limited playing time in the NFL, and some of them will be facing Rodgers for the first time.
If I was a Ravens fan, and trying to see how they win this game, the best plan might focus around using their backup QB, Tyler Hundley to play as much RPO (run pass option) as possible, he’s a fast QB, similar to Jackson, but Hundley doesn’t have he same passing skills - so to keep the Packers focused on him, perhaps having the Packers put a spy in and, similar to soccer, play him man-to-man, that will allow the Ravens to perhaps scheme their 1st and 2nd receivers into space. However, if the Packers can stick to sending 4 and dropping 7 back into coverage, then it’s up to Hundley to either run for the 1st down or risk attacking a very good Packers defence through the air. There are very few good outcomes for the Ravens in this game, especially with the injuries they have had, the Packers are rolling, and if Rodgers plays even 70% of his potential, it should be a good night for the Packers.
Final Score: Packers 34 - 20 Ravens
Tip
Injuries lead me to think the Packers will cover the spread, and it would be crazy to bet against Davante Adams getting a TD in this game.
Game 3: Saints at Bucs
Kickoff: 8:20pm ET, 5:20pm PT, 1:20am GMT (Monday)
With 1 win in 6 games, this Saints team are the real life zombies walking around waiting for someone to take that head shot and put them out of their misery.
Obviously no one is going to take last weeks win over the Jets seriously, and the output from Taysom Hill isn’t going to get anyone excited either. Pro Football Reference website puts the Jets passing defence as the worse in the league in giving up points, they have cost their team a total of 148 points this season through the air, Taysom Hill couldn’t get 1 passing TD on the worse passing defence in the league. I’ve been down on the Saints all season, and I’m still not impressed by anything they are doing.
The Saints have some good players, and they play hard, but you’d have to wonder what this team would be like if their head coach had a better plan for the QB spot when Drew Brees retired. For a team that has been built to win now, to not have planned for a new QB is amazingly poor judgement by the Saints. No one ever thought that Jameis Winston would be the answer, and neither could Taysom Hill, and with the upcoming draft having slim pickings for QBs, the Saints are going to have to find something special to be competitive next year. This year is cooked, even though they have always matched up to the Bucs very well over the last 2 seasons, the rest of the Saints games are against 2 division opponents that have already beaten them this year, and the Dolphins who final have a good defence. The Saints will be around $60M over the cap for next year, that requires a lot of work to bring in new players, get rid of a lot of dead weight and find a way to be competitive. Given how they have relied on Drew Brees for so long, it’s a question to ponder, is Sean Payton the man to turn this ship around?
The Bucs are a machine right now, not that they are the best offence in the league, although they are up there. Nor are they the best defence, but they are good, however they have Tom Brady and he is a driving force for a team that would never be this clinical, this relentless, if not for his presence.
The Bucs have faced a lot of good teams this year and come out on top, they’ve just beaten the Bills in a tight game, they have also beaten the Cowboys, Colts and Patriots. All those teams are looking to go to the playoffs and the Bucs beat them, simply because they have Tom Brady in a Tom Brady offence. The Bucs are tied with the Packers at 10-3 at the top of the NFC and both teams will be going punch for punch to stay in that number 1 spot. If you didn’t know, only the top team from each conference gets a first round bye in the playoffs, not to mention home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Prediction
While the Saints have been able to stall Brady for the last 12 quarters of football they have played, the Saints are down both their starting tackles, they would normally hope to have a strong running game, but with the tackles out, and the Bucs having a tremendous defensive line, the Saints are going to have to dig deep into the magic book for some trick plays to make this game close.
The Bucs have been motoring on offence, they have racked up more 30+ points games this season than any other team, and they have also been scoring heavy in the first half of games. If the Bucs can get ahead by a score or two in this game, then the Saints will be forced to pass more, and that’s the worse thing for the Saints.
Final Score: Saints 24 - 38 Bucs
Tip
The Bucs to cover the spread, as this game has a great chance to be a blowout, and both Leonard Fournette and Chris Godwin for anytime TD scores.