Week 13 NFL Sunday Preview
Game 1: Chargers at Bengals
Kickoff: 1pm ET, 10am PT, 6pm GMT
Older Premier League fans will remember the famous line from talking head Alan Hansen in 1995 when he said ‘you can’t win anything with kids’ in reference to Manchester United’s team selection being made up of youth team players like Paul Scholes, Nicky Butt and Gary Neville - all aged 20-22. It turned out to be one of the worse takes on live TV as Manchester United went on to win the Premier League.
The NFL is use to amalgamating young players into their teams, the college draft has been around as long as professional football has, and every team has had the struggle of scouting, and incorporating their new players into the professional league. Some teams are obviously better than others, just like in soccer, if you priorities a good developmental structure to your club, you’ll have greater success at bringing through the younger players, and therefore rely less on expensive acquisitions through free agency/transfer markets.
What sets the NFL apart from other sports, is the salary cap. The most expensive position in football is the QB, the average salary for a QB is $30M per season, and given the current salary cap is $180M, that means 1 player is getting 17% of your team’s salary, so the other 52 players are suddenly getting a share of only $150M. What makes the draft so appealing to teams, is that the NFL teams are given a cap on how much each pick can be paid, with the 1st overall pick in the 2021 draft being paid $38M over 5 years, and this goes down to the last pick which would receive a 4 year deal with around $2.5M. Signing a rookie QB for 5 years is slightly more expensive than your average QB salary and that is extremely appealing to teams, it allows you to then spend more on WR, DE, OT and other areas of need.
This game features two 2nd year QBs, Joe Burrow for the Bengals and Justin Herbert for the Chargers. Both are still in their rookie contracts, and count very little towards the salary cap, and both are very good QBs, perhaps an argument could be made that they are both top 10. Regardless of where they rank, they both contribute to their teams success.
These two teams have the chance to be good for a long time to come, they just need to make sure they:
continue to draft well
coach and develop their QBs into a system that brings the best out of them
develop a strong Oline to protect them
sign free agents that will bring value to your team and not a distraction
move on from bad coaching instead of putting square pegs in round holes
Both of these teams are doing points 1, 2, 3 and 4. However, the Chargers need to look closely at point 5. Joe Lombardi doesn’t look like he’s able to keep up with the demands of being an NFL offensive coordinator. We know that Herbert is one of the most gifted QBs in the NFL, but there is no clear identity to the Chargers offence. They can run the ball well, but don’t do enough of it, they have an extremely accurate QB - but they don’t seem to get their receivers in any space.
On the flip side, the Bengals know exactly who they are. They are a power running team that forces you to play against the run and then uses its skilful WRs to burn you deep when you don’t cover deep. Teams caught on fast the JaMarr Chase was going to win a high rate of deep balls, even if he was double covered, so he’s been shadowed by 2-3 defensive backs in most games, if you don that, the Bengals will start running on your 6 or 7 man box and start ripping off 7 yards, 10 yards, 15 yard runs and then you have to pick how they beat you.
Prediction (38-23 through week 12)
Given that the Bengals have been so good lately, and they stayed some dragons last week in their beat down of the Steelers, I can’t pick against the Bengals. Joe Mixon is running better than he has all his career, and given how effective the Bengals are at dictating how they want the game to play out, I can’t see the Chargers being able to stop the Bengals from scoring too often.
The Chargers have the players, but only winning 2 of their last 6 games has put up a real question about their coaching. Head coach Brandon Staley is good, but they have been bossed in games that they lost, even the humble Broncos managed to slow down the Chargers offence. I think Joe Lombardi is fighting for his job in these last few games for the Chargers, they’ll be lucky to make the playoffs, but even if they do, I don’t think many teams would be willing to watch this offensive display for another season.
Final Score: Chargers 20 - 31 Bengals
Tip
JaMarr Chase to have over 65.5 receiving yards at 5/6 and the Bengals to cover the -3 at 10/11.
Game 2: Ravens at Steelers
Kickoff: 4.25pm ET, 1.25pm PT, 9.25pm GMT
A few weeks back I made a point of stating the Ben Roethlisberger was no saint, this week, you’ll see he’s not even a viable QB anymore. I’m not the only, or first, person to bin him, for weeks people have pointed out just how bad his play is getting. What’s worse, is that he’s the best QB the Steelers have, and that’s more a reflection of head coach Mike Tomlin’s lack of perception of the team he has. At about week 4, the Steelers played the Packers and lost a game they never looked in contention to win. It was around then that people could see that Ben was going down hill. He couldn’t hit a receiver deep and he was looking shaky in his short yard throws. Move on a few weeks, and if you’d look at the stat line only, you’d think he was doing ok, but if you look at the game tape, you could see the arm wasn’t there and the mind was not able to keep up with the game.
The Ravens are a strange team right now. They struggled to win the last two games against the Bears and the Browns, they got humbled in Miami and were completely outclassed by the Bengals a few weeks back. Yet, they are still the top team in the AFC North! Thanks to great coaching and players being called on and showing up when needed, they still have the ability to win games that most teams would lose given their circumstances. The Ravens have lost a lot of players over the season, but they’ve managed to not let that define their season. With Lamar Jackson back from illness, he’ll expect better of himself than last weeks 4 INTs, if it wasn’t the hapless Browns, the Ravens would have lost to another team.
Prediction
The Steelers are falling apart, even with a strange showing from the Ravens over the last few weeks, I’d still take the Ravens in this game. They have the best player on the field with Lamar Jackson and they have the better defence too. There are too many questions surrounding the Steelers to think they will be able to win again this year, after they tied with the Lions a couple of weeks ago, you could see the true limitation of this team.
Final Score: Ravens 23 - 13 Steelers
Tip
Ravens to cover the -4 at 10/11 and take the under on total points of 44, also 10/11