Super Wildcard Weekend - Sunday Edition
Game 1: Eagles at Bucs
Kickoff: 1:00pm ET, 10:00am PT, 6:00pm GMT
Of all the games that could provide a shock, this could be the one. These two played back in week 8, when the Eagles were underperforming and couldn’t formulate a good game plan around Jalen Hurts’ skill set. That week 8 game ended 22-28 to the Bucs, but 21 of those points can be directly attributed to players that won’t play today: Leonard Fournette and Antonio Brown.
Add to that, Lavonte David is still unlikely to play, along with starting RB Ronald Jones and backup WR Cyril Grayson, Tom Brady still has Mike Evans and OJ Howard, but with the rest of the offensive weapons being practice squad and/or guys at the bottom of your depth chart, the Eagles defence will be targeting Evans and Howard and daring Brady to trust Perryman and Ke'Shawn Vaughn.
The Eagles defence does not have a great pass defence, so they need the Bucs to be this deprived to have a chance. If the Bucs were playing anyone else in this situation, then I’d be inclined to pick against Tom Brady, but the Eagles just have so many questions that will go unanswered, even after this game.
The final 8 games of the regular season for the Eagle saw them go 6-2, and snatch the last of the playoff spots, but of those teams they beat, it was the Giants, Washington x2, Jets, Broncos and Saints. Not exactly a great resume, you can only beat who is in front of you, but one of the loses came against the Giants, and that’s the scary part. A rookie head coach who’s impressed at times, but also given us plenty of head scratching moments, they have given up >28 points 6 times this season, including 3 games where they shipped >40 points. If they want to win this game, even with the Bucs having a lot of backups on the field, they have to keep the scoring under 28.
Prediction (63-46 through the regular season)
The Bucs defence still looks the strong point, without a few starters they still have a strong front 7, and they need to hold the edge in this game to stop Hurts from breaking containment. The last game saw Hurts score 3 TDs, if the Eagles can give him support in the running game and feed on RPOs, draw plays and bubble screens - successfully, I think the Eagles have a fighting chance.
The down side to this game might be the weather. It’s scheduled to be extremely wet in Tampa for this game, with possible lightning storms. A wet field and ball might turn this game ugly, hopefully the drainage in Raymond James Stadium is able to hold up, the Bucs don’t want this to turn messy, they need it to be dry, and not rely on backups who haven’t seem much action take on a key role in a game that could decide their future next season. If those backups feel the heat in this game and choke, you’d hate for that to be the deciding factor on their time in Tampa.
The outcome of this game might depend on a Tom Brady drive at the end, I wouldn’t be shocked by the Eagles winning, but I also expect some Brady magic at some point in this game.
Final Score: Eagles 24 - 27 Bucs
Game 2: 49ers at Cowboys
Kickoff: 4:30pm ET, 1:30pm PT, 9:30pm GMT
The people who watched the NFL in the mid 90s will remember so many of these Cowboys/49ers playoff games. In three straight playoffs, these two teams met, with the Cowboys winning twice in the conference championship before winning the Super Bowl. The third time was also conference championship game that saw the 49ers go on to win the Super Bowl. These teams have had a great history together, but since those glory years, the Cowboys have only won 4 playoff games, never getting to the NFC Championship game and the 49ers had one run to the Super Bowl before coming up short to the Ravens.
Nostalgia to one side, this game looks set to be an instant classic on its own merit. Both teams are healthy, both have coaches that can game plan to put you in a bad spot, both teams have high quality players on both offence and defence. If you were trying to find a weak spot on each team, it’s slim pickings, but there are a couple.
The 49ers need to keep Jimmy GQ under control, when he tries to do to much, the wheels come off and he becomes a liability to the offence, when he stays in line, doesn’t take risks, then he puts the best 49ers players in winning situations. They’ll need a good game from George Kittle and Deebo Samuel, the Cowboys defence is strong, but they do give up big plays and have been susceptible to big plays throughout this season.
The biggest question mark of the Cowboys is if the real Cowboys offence shows up. Over the last few weeks it’s been feast of famine. They went 6-4 over the last 10 games, not an ideal situation, but what was worrying most, is the nature of the loses, 3 losses to the Chiefs, Broncos and Cardinals, Prescott had a completion percentage under 60, not good at all. If the running game doesn’t show up, the pressure will be on Prescott to deliver, and the 49ers defence isn’t one to be picked on. It’s going to require a great effort on either team to win this game.
Prediction
I don’t know how this game will end, but it’s likely a score on the last possession that delivers the win for either team. The Cowboys should win if the game goes to team with the best players, but that’s never the case. The Cowboys are coached by former Packers Head Coach, Mike McCarthy, who is notoriously poor in clock management, was also been in charge for the worse years of Aaron Rodgers career. McCarthy will need to be at his best to out perform his counter part, 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan. Both of these coaches have had nightmares in the playoffs in the past, Shanahan was the offensive coordinator when the Falcons lost the Super Bowl in 2016 after being up 28-3 with 3 minutes left in the 3rd quarter. His poor play calling as that game played out, was some of the most painful experiences any Falcons fan will ever experience. For McCarthy, he watched as the Packers gave up a 19-7 lead with only 4 minutes left in the 4th quarter to eventually lose in overtime.
Both of these coaches will hold on to those painful experience regardless of the outcome of todays game, but people will be watching how they perform as this game churns towards to the 4th quarter. Even with a 10 point lead, neither of these teams will be considered safe at any point in the game.
The Cowboys seem to be a very streaky team, if they get hot, they should stay hot, but if they start with a couple of failed drives, it’s hard to see them right the ship, they have the players to win this game, but doubts remain if they can sustain a push versus a strong team for 60 minutes.
The 49ers come into this game hotter than the surface of the sun. They came back to beat the Rams last week, but if they want to win this game, the Cowboys are not the team to give up as easily as the Rams did.
Final Score: 49ers 27 - 30 Cowboys
Game 3: Steelers at Chiefs
Kickoff: 8:15pm ET, 5:15pm PT, 1:15am GMT (Monday)
This is a strange game. These two played each other only a few weeks ago and the Chiefs destroyed the Steelers in quick fashion. For the Steelers to be an AFC wildcard team is a reflection on how poorly the middle/lower teams in the AFC are.
The Steelers should be able to lose this game with some dignity. It wouldn’t be great for football if this game is over by half time, although it could be. The Chiefs said in the first game, they could have played better, as they started to rest their best players in the 3rd quarter up 33-3!
It will likely play out just as it did before, there is no reason to think the Chiefs won’t trounce the Steelers again. The Steelers backed into this spot by wins over the Browns and Ravens, teams that suffered greatly at the hands of stupidity and COVID respectively.
Prediction
A poor game to end the night, unless you’re a Chiefs fan or enjoy watching teams collapse. To be fair to the Steelers, they could win this game, if:
The Chiefs fail to score 20 points - happened 3 times (they still won 2 of those)
Chiefs forget to show up for the game
Chiefs only play their backups
Big Ben completes 90% of his passes and the Chiefs play with no QB
Final Score: Steelers 10 - 41 Chiefs