Super Wildcard Weekend - Saturday Edition
Game 1: Raiders at Bengals
Kickoff: 4:30pm ET, 1:30pm PT, 9:30pm GMT
This could be the better of the two games today. While the Patriots v Bills is a good divisional matchup, this game has the explosiveness that you might not see later.
The Bengals have won their division, only the 5th time ever, and the first since 2015. They have progressed exceptionally well under Zac Taylor, and going from 2-14 to division champs in just 3 season would normally put you in the Coach of the Year talk, but with Matt Lafleur and Mike Vrabel doing so well, he likely wont get a vote.
This game was also played during the regular season, but things were very different, for both teams. The Bengals won thanks to the running of Joe Mixon, while Burrow had a great day himself, the Bengals hadn’t fully put the game in his hands. Over the last 2 games he’s played, Joe Burrow might have been playing the best football anyone had seen this season. This game might be put in the hands of Joe Burrow, but how he handles the weather will determine if they transition into a power running game. The weather for the game is expected to be around the 30°f (1°C) with snow showers.
The weather could be a bigger impact on the Raiders. They have won 4 games straight since getting humbled by the Chiefs, it’s been a mix of good fortune and good game planning. They played the Colts when Carson Wentz was 1 game removed from COVID and no practice. They beat a bad Broncos team that most teams are dismantling, a Browns team that didn’t know to play with a good running back and then the Chargers who couldn’t get a stop when they need it most. The Raiders have been good themselves, but there are times in every game when you wonder how they manage to win at all. Carr is missing throws he should make, if he makes an extra 2 or three in the Chargers game, they win it easily.
Both teams are as healthy as they can be, but the Bengals starters got an extra weeks rest before today and the Raiders defence is coming off a short week after playing nearly 100 snaps on Sunday Night.
Prediction (63-46 through the regular season)
The fire power that the Bengals have is likely to push them past this gutsy Raiders team. It will likely be Casey Hayward vs Ja’Marr Chase that ultimately decides this game, Hayward has been one of the better cornerbacks in the league for the last 5 years, while playing for the Packers and the Chargers, he’s been able to shine in some troubled defences. If he can limit Chase to under 100 yards and just the 1 TD, then the Raiders have a chance. The D-line for the Raiders is going against a shaky O-line and if the defence holds up, that could be the best the Raiders can do to keep the Bengals under 30 points, then it’s up to Carr to help get the ball into Waller’s hands and get some good calls at the line to keep Josh Jacobs in a good flow for the running game.
Final Score: Raiders 23 - 31 Bengals
Game 2: Patriots at Bills
Kickoff: 8:15pm ET, 5:15pm PT, 1:15am (GMT)
The 3rd meeting of the season, and it might be even colder than the first. Temperatures of 8°f (-12°c) is going to make the game very interesting, we don’t have the wind that hampered the first meeting, but a cold ball can be hard to grip, luckily Josh Allen has the hands to overcome that, but how effective can Mac Jones be if the Bills actually manage to score in this game. In the last few starts, Jones hasn’t looked capable of taking the team on his back, the win over Jacksonville was inevitable, regardless of the QB, Belichick just has a way with bad teams at the end of the season.
There are two ways to look at this game: 1 - the Patriots are coached better than almost any team in the league, and experience helps in big games. They are not the underdogs, but they are not the favourites either, the Patriots could simply just outplay the Bills at the right time, in the right situations. 2 - the Bills best offensive players can outplay the Patriots one-to-one, and while the Patriots will be good, they might not be good enough to stop the Bills on enough drives to keep the score tight, given the chance, the Bills can explode into high gear and score 14 points in 7 minutes.
The Bills have been very good since Thanksgiving. They lost twice, one tight overtime loss to the Bucs, and a weather affected game with the Patriots. The debate is: how much did the weather affect the Bills in the first meeting with the Patriots? After the game, the Bills players were not hiding from the press after accusations that they were ‘soft’, to question their ability to play in that game, in those conditions is rather lamentable. The Bills managed to take one of the best game plans they’ve faced, in the worse weather any player since the Ice Bowl has faced, and only lost by one score.
Prediction
I think this game could be a blow out win for the Bills. There is no way that the Patriots can repeat what happened in the first game, that game plan can only work once in a season, and the second game was a clear domination from the Bills. Mac Jones got cooked up early and often, and the Bills WRs went nuclear on the Patriots secondary. If both the previous game plans are introduced to this game, then the Bills will win easily. If the Patriots can somehow keep the score close, and not be forced to put excessive pressure on their own QB to win this game by himself, then they have a chance.
I think the Bills will get an early lead and put the same pressure on Jones as Miami did last week, the Bills are soaring, the Patriots are not.
Final Score: Patriots 17 - 34 Bills
More to come tomorrow…!