The last game of the season is here and it’s been a wild ride. This is the first time I’ve written a blog about the NFL, and it’s been an amazing experience. Previewing every game this season was an eye opener - it’s not easy. Going into todays Super Bowl I have a record of 72-49, not bad, not great, but when you think about all the amazing performances from some bad teams, I’m just glad I got over .500. If anyone out there truly picked the Jaguars to beat the Bills - you’re a god amongst mortals. From tomorrow until the 2022 preseason kick-off, I’ll start writing more about the NFL as a whole, instead of just previews. I’ll cover Free Agency, the Draft and then the dead zone – that quiet time between June and preseason.
Who’s gonna win the Super Bowl
That’s all we really want to know. I think this could be close, really close, the last time I can remember watching a Super Bowl when there was no clear favourite, would be 2013 when Baltimore beat the 49ers. It’s very rare that two 4th seeded teams would make it to the Super Bowl, and it’s a reflection of how unpredictable this season has been. These aren’t the best teams in the NFL for 2021 – they are the two teams that got hot at the right time and overcame their own limitations to get here.
The Rams
The LA Rams haven’t been flawless this season, far from it, even in the playoffs they’ve gotten off the hook once or twice. They’ve lost twice to the 49ers in the regular season, one of which they were up 17-3 at half time. They were beating the Bucs 20-3 at half time in the playoffs and ended up sneaking through 30-27, they’ve had times when the game is in the bag and they’re trying to throw the bag away! Ugly turnovers are their undoing. In each of their loses (5) the Rams have turned over the ball a combined 12 times, most of those turnovers came from Matthew Stafford INTs that were mostly ugly picks. In their last two playoff games they’ve won, but turned it over 5 times – 4 fumbles against the Bucs and an INT vs the 49ers. When you put that on paper with the Bengals, who have picked off 5 passes in their last two games, then the Rams will have to smart, if they make mistakes, the Bengals will take advantage every time.
The highlight reel of Cooper Kupp’s season will be the thing of legend. He’s the best player at his position, he’s one of the rare people to be given an MPV vote as a wide receiver and he’s going up against a team that will have its hands full all day. The Rams are a fast flying offence. They will get aggressive, they will play hard, they do have good receivers, they might lack a true number 1 running back, but they have 3 very serviceable players fulfilling that role. Matthew Stafford is playing the same football he’s always played – just now he’s got the whole league paying attention, not just the fans of the NFC North. Lions, Vikings, Bears and Packers fans have all seen how good Stafford is, while playing for the Lions for the last 11 years, most of his skills were only noticed by a few, but if you watched him play you’d know he’s extremely tough, throws the ball harder than most, and was doing a no-look pass long before Patrick Mahomes was ever in the NFL. Stafford is getting the reward he deserves, playing in the Super Bowl is never a right for anyone, but there will be few people to begrudge him the chance to show the world just how powerful his right arm can be.
While it’s great to see Stafford in the Super Bowl, his greatness comes with a little flaw – there are times when he will throw it up for grabs. Back in his prime with Detroit, Stafford had one of the greatest wide receivers of all time, Megatron - AKA Calvin Johnson. Johnson could be triple covered and still catch a pass that’s thrown up for grabs. While Cooper Kupp is great, he’s not Megatron, he can’t be relied upon to go over 3 DBs and still take the ball away. And the Bengals know that beating the Rams, or Stafford does not include blitzing, you’ll see the Bengals dropping right back crowding the passing lanes hoping to force Stafford into making mistakes. The Rams have shown us who they are, they’re a great team that score points but always, always give you a way back into the game. They have mistakes baked into their DNA, just how many can the Bengals extract.
The Bengals
The fairy tale story is on its final chapter. The Bengals were 2-14 only two years ago, last year their QB got his knee destroyed - another dead year. This year, the Phoenix is up and flapping its wings.
Back in week 17, January 2nd, the Bengals woke up on a Sunday morning, they were 9-6 and top of the AFC North. The division was tighter than two credit cards glued together, but with a win over the Kansas City Chiefs, they could win the AFC North. Everyone in the league was thinking, “hmmm, the Browns could still win this division, or maybe the Ravens”. No one outside of Cincinnati thought the Bengals could beat the Chiefs that day. Well, Ja’Marr Chase had 266 yards and 3 TDs - the most by a rookie in NFL history. The 4th seed was theirs and they were going to the playoffs - “that’s nice”, was everyones first thought.
Inevitably the Bengals playoff game would be at the least attractive time slot for the playoffs, Saturday at 4:30pm. A game against the unfenced Raiders, not that interesting, neither team was fancied in the next round, but the Bengals didn’t care, they won and went on to the Titans - in Tennessee. What happed was what people in Cincinnati would expect to happen, but to us, it was a wake up call. The Bengals kept it close, they picked off Ryan Tannihill and kept Darrick Henry at bay all night. The Bengals shocked the #1 seeded Titans. On to Kansas. And this Kansas game might serve as the warning for the Super Bowl.
The Chiefs could score fast, just like the Rams. The Chiefs have weapons, lots of them, just like the Rams. The Chiefs got off to a flying start, the score was 21-10 with 1 minutes left in the 2nd quarter, the Chiefs were inside the 10 yard line of the Bengals. The Chiefs hadn’t been stopped all game, but with seconds to play and 0 time outs, the Chiefs ran Tyreek Hill on the flat and passed him the ball at the 2 yard line with only Eli Apple to beat, 99% of the time, this is a TD, but the Bengals held on and got the stop. From that point on, the Bengals limited the Chiefs to 3 points for the rest of the game. The Chiefs had multiply 3-and-outs, turned the ball over and couldn’t figure out the Bengals defence. The in-game coaching for the Bengals was a masterclass. Their defence was able to shut down one of the best offences in the league over the last 3 years - in their own back yard. Do we really think they can’t do that to the Rams?
The Rams match up well with the Bengals when it’s in the trenches. The Oline for the Bengals is by far the most glaring weak point, and the Rams Dline is the thing of nightmares. Von Miller, Leonard Floyd and Aaron Donald - one of them is going to have a great day while the other two are double or triple teamed. In no way will Donald not be double teamed on every play, it’s whether the other two guys can take advantage of the situation and effect the game.
For the Bengals to counter this imposing threat, they know they have to run quick outs, short passes, bubble screens and a strong running game. In the AFC Championship game, they were too predictable on first down, constantly running stretch runs to the tackles, and the Chiefs knew it was coming, it was very ineffective, but when they went to pass first on 1st down, they did well It’s understandable that when you struggle to pass the ball, then you’d want to try and protect your QB as best as you can. I don’t think the Bengals can be that conservative in this game. The Rams don’t have the best DBs, and outside of Jalen Ramsey, who will mostly be one-on-one with Ja’Marr Chase, any of the Bengals WRs can beat the Rams DBs, that’s a bonus for the Bengals. That’s only if Burrow has the time to throw, perhaps they put in extra linemen or they run some beautiful play-action-passes, but either way, they have to find a way to get the ball to all their receivers.
Prediction
The Bengals are the least penalised teams in the NFL, they make the least mistakes and they play consistently good football. Joe Burrow is cooler than ice in Antartica, he won’t get shaken at all, he’s played in the biggest college games, and now he’s played in the biggest NFL games. While he might get picked off, it’s not going to happen the same way as a Mathew Stafford INT, where he throws one up and hopes for the best. The Rams have the better roster, slightly, but the Bengals can’t be overlooked, if they can beat the Chiefs twice in a month, they can win any game.
I can’t see this game being a very high scoring game. While the Rams can get out to an early lead, they’ve not shown any ability to maintain it. Couple that with the Bengals always playing well from behind and winning from losing positions, this game will not be a blowout.
The Bengals have shown us they can adapt in game, the Rams… not so much. I think this game comes down to a field goal win, and if you put a gun to my head, I’d have to pick the Bengals to be the most likely winner in that situation.
Final Score: Rams 24 - 27 Bengals