NFL Sunday Preview: Week 16
Game 1: Bills at Patriots
Kickoff 1pm ET, 4pm PT, 6pm GMT
A ‘sliding doors’ game
This game might be one of the most defining games of the Bills season. In their last meeting I mentioned how, after Tom Brady left the Patriots, the Bills looked ready to take over at the top of the AFC North. Last season that idea was starting to look real, they beat the Patriots twice going on to win the AFC North with a record of 13-3 but ultimately falling short of the Super Bowl at the hands of the Kansas City Chiefs. This season they were suppose to push on, they were suppose to build on that success, however, reality is often disappointing.
The Bills are currently 8-6, and 5-5 over the last 10 games. The real hurt, and confusion to their fans, is the loss to the Patriots back in week 13. In driving wind, the Patriots ran the ball 46 times for 222 yards. They passed the ball 3 times in the entire game, it’s one thing to lose to your main rival, but when they line up and you know they are running the ball on 99% of their plays, and you can’t find a way to stop it, that not only takes the game away from you, but you live with those games in your head longer than you should. The way they lost that game has been spoken about ever since: are the Bills ‘soft’? No team in the NFL is soft, the nature of the game requires a physicality that is only matched with combat sports and rugby, but there are teams that build their success with line play. Defensive line and offensive line play is one of the best indicators of successful teams.
If you look at last years Bucs team, they had the best run defence and Tom Brady had one of the lowest sack rates of his career. Two factors that helped them beat the Packers in the NFC Championship Game and the Chiefs in the Super Bowl.
The Bills are average on both sides of the ball when it comes to line play, but what hurts them is losing these close games. 5 of their 6 losses are by less than a score, when you lose tight games so much, your ability to make the right call when all the chips are in will be scrutinised. If the Bill lose this game, their season won’t be over, but it will be a call back to the Bills of old, the Bills that are still haunted by ‘wide right’ and are still the little brother of the AFC North.
The Patriots are 8-2 over their last 10 games with loses against the Colts and Cowboy, both playoff bound. While things look good for the Patriots right now, the last lose was a slight concern. That was the first game where the Patriots put the ball in the hands of their rookie QB and asked him to win the game. While playing some good football, he did throw two INTs that cost the Patriots dearly, particularly in the red zone. It will be telling if the Patriots try that again before the playoffs, the game plan is normally built around limiting mistakes and exploiting your opponents weakness.
Prediction (49-32 through week 15)
This game could be decided by a field goal at the end of regulation. The margins for error on both teams is very tight. Neither can afford to turn the ball over, and Patriots QB Mac Jones has to stay focused on this the most. He cost his team a lot of points last week, when he’s in tight situations in the red zone, the best play can sometimes be an incomplete pass - taking field goals in this game is more important than going for it all in one pass. The Bills don’t need to act tough to get rid of their ‘soft’ persona, they just have to make the right plays at the end of the game. In a recent lose to the Bucs, they let the game get away from them early, they managed to come back into it, but that lose might have been different if they played for 60 minutes instead of 30.
If the Bills can play a good game for 60 minutes they have the tools to win the game, but the Patriots look like a team that are coached to beat teams on any given Sunday. A telling stat is that the Colts have played both these teams recently, with the Colts giving a beat down to the Bills winning a, some what, comfortable game against the Patriots. And with the Patriots taking the life out of the Bills in their last meeting, you have to give the edge to the Patriots.
The Bills could very much win this game, but when push comes to shove, picking against the Patriots in December, at home, is not something I can do.
Final Score: Bills 17 - 20 Patriots
Tip
I’d take the under in total points for this game, in touchdowns given up on defence, these teams are 1st and 3rd, with the Bills giving up only 11 in the season and the Patriots 16.
Game 2: Steelers at Chiefs
Kickoff: 4:25pm ET, 1:25pm PT, 9:25pm GMT
Somehow the Steelers are still alive
Both of these offences are a hot mess of stupidity right now, but for completely different reasons. The Chiefs are the kind of offence that will either put up a cozy 20ish points or a 40+ ass whooping on you. The Steelers on the other hand, they’ve gone over 27 points only twice all season. Watching the Steelers offence is painful. There are rumours that the US intelligence agencies will use Steelers game tape as a form of interrogation to replace waterboarding.
The fact the Steelers are in the race for a playoff spot should be the poster that the NFL never uses to promote their dream of parity. Parity was suppose to be about teams playing great football and fighting it out tooth and nail to the very end, instead it’s a zombie like team with a QB that looks like a tree falling in slow motion every time he moves more than 3 yards. Never before has there been a more bizarre team than this Steelers team. I’ve never been a fan of Big Ben, that should be clear by now, but somehow he manages to do something worthy of a TD in every game, couple that with the Steelers defence somehow managing to slow teams down, and you have a boring .500 team.
There are better teams in the league with worse records than the Steelers: Vikings, Eagles, Dolphins, Browns. Perhaps it’s the coaching that has the Steelers where they are, perhaps it’s the lack of superior teams to take advantage of this messy season. Either way, the Steelers are on their way to the Chiefs Kingdom and they could be in for a painful defeat.
The Chiefs are the team best suited to give the Steelers the death blow they have been looking for since that humiliation at the hands of Cincinnati. The Bengals put a beat down on the Steelers that should have been the end of their season, then the Titans and Ravens went and handed them wins, and a life line, for some unknown reason.
The Chiefs come into this game on the back of some compelling wins. They beat the Chargers in a great game, and it’s thanks to the defence that the Chiefs are in such strong a position. They are giving up 12 points/game over the last 6, if they can put the breaks on an offence like the Packers and Cowboys, they should be able to put the Steelers ‘offence’ into the bin.
Prediction
Chiefs win - big. The Steelers have no business being in this position, they stink, their offence stinks, their defence is working overtime to try and stick with teams but this Steelers team has won 2 games in 6, but in those defeats they have given up 36, 41, 41 points. The Chiefs could be looking at the 40+ mark in this game.
Final Score: Steelers 13 - 45 Chiefs
Tip
Take the Chiefs to cover the spread. Also for Tyreek Hill to get an anytime TD.
Game 3: Football Team at Cowboys
Kickoff: 8:20pm ET, 5:20pm PT, 1:20am GMT (Monday)
NFL is printing money
The only reason this game is in primetime is because the NFL, like most of us, likes to make money. And there is nothing more hilarious than seeing Washington fans put their eyes on this game and think they have a chance of the playoffs with this team. The money games come from the big markets, Texas, Washington, LA, Florida and New York. There are other games that guarantee money from sponsors, but having an NFC East game on primetime is usually like being the banker when playing monopoly.
Last time these teams met, way back on December 12th, Dak Prescott tried his best to give the game away, even with his best efforts, the WFT still managed to lose. The game was 24-0 at half time, only with a heavy heart did the Cowboys take pity on the WFT and let them play some meaningful football. In Dallas, tonight, that won’t happen. The Cowboys need to win this game to win the NFC East for only the 6th time this century. They have been starved for success for over 25 years, and for a head coach that is use to winning, he will be focused on putting a foot over the neck of the WFT and stomping the life out of them.
The Cowboys are also in the hunt for a top seed in the NFC, while the Packers are looking like the 1 seed, if the Cowboys can lock up the 2nd seed, they would likely get two home games in the playoffs, that’s something that will go a long way to putting them in a good position to get to the NFC Championship game.
Prediction
Points for the Cowboys and mistakes for the WFT. Last week’s game against the Eagles was the first time in 10 weeks that the WFT didn’t commit a turnover. For a team that is as talent deficient as the WFT, they can’t go week after week with turning the ball over, how they have won 6 games this season is remarkable, but how they beat the Bucs is even more shocking.
The Cowboys offence will look to pick up from where it left off at halftime of their first game with the WFT, and just like the first game between these two, the game could be over by half time.
Final Score: Football Team 17 - 34 Cowboys
Tip
Pollard and Elliott to score anytime TDs in this game. Plus, the Cowboys to cover the spread.