Preamble…
The Lions beat the Cardinals, the Saints shut out the Bucs and a former 4th string QB came 2 inches short of beating the Packers. If anyone, even me, thinks they know what will happen with absolute 100% certainty, in these games or any game, they are wrong.
The NFL is always sold on its parity, the draft, and the salary cap. We’re now looking at a season where there are only 3 games left for most teams and there are only 4 teams that are eliminated from the playoffs. 4 of 32 teams are out, with only 3 games left for most teams, this is the purity of what parity is - and because of that, we do not know who is good and who is bad, all we know is that if you don’t roll up on game day with intent to perform, coaches and players, then you will lose. The Bucs getting shut out, at home, to the Saints is not embarrassing, it’s just hilarious. The last time Tom Brady was held scoreless in a game, not one single NFL defender was playing in the league - not one, that’s how rare these events are.
COVID Game 1: Raiders at Browns
Kickoff: 5pm ET, 2pm PT, 10pm GMT
The Browns have been hit by COVID like no other team in the NFL this season. They have 19 players on the COVID reserve list for this game, but are only +3 on the spread, that shows how little faith the bettors have in the Raiders team.
19 players, including 8 starters and good backups, is hard to overcome, but in this edition of the NFL, nothing is for sure. The Browns are up and down, they’ve had good days and bad days, just like other teams in the league, but they are about to play Nick Mullens at QB. 49ers fans will remember him leading them to a couple of wins a few seasons ago when injuries hit their QB room. Mullens is no slouch, and can play pro football, but how much of the play book he has down is not known.
The Raiders are not without their own issues. They still do not have Darren Waller, one of the best tight ends in the league, and while Desean Jackson is playing well, they aren’t really the same since Henry Ruggs was arrested for causing a car crash while DUI. Derrick Carr is playing the best he has in years, but with defences having caught up on most teams finer tricks and play calling, his numbers are starting to regress a little. This could be due to the absence of Waller and Ruggs, but the running game has become unreliable and this has allowed teams to back off the line of scrimmage and see if they can confuse Carr enough into make mistakes.
Prediction (45-27 through week 14)
The Browns still have their best defender, Myles Garrett, and the Raiders line is not as reliable as it has been in the past. With limited options in the passing game, the Browns could stifle the Raiders offence with good defensive line play. If they can get the upper hand at the line, the game is there to be won by the Mullens led Browns.
Mullens has to use all option available to him, there are still some good pass catchers on offence, but to win this he has to make as little mental errors as possible. The Raiders aren’t a polished team by any stretch, they will make their own mistakes, but if the Browns are to win, they can’t beat themselves.
The Raiders come into this game with their hopes of the playoffs slipping away, they are only two games out from getting the last playoff spot in the AFC, but if they can’t take advantage of this COVID ravaged team, then missing the playoffs are the least of their concerns.
Final Score: Raiders 24 - 27 Browns
Tip
Hunter Renfrow is going to be Derrick Carrs main target, over 6.5 receptions is 4/6 and worth taking. Also, Harrison Bryant at 13/2 for an anytime TD for the Browns is a good price for a reliable pair of hands that Mullens has had a lot of time to work with. When the Browns get to the red zone, I think Bryant is likely his first target.
Monday Night Football: Vikings at Bears
Kickoff: 8.15pm ET, 5.15pm PT, 1.15am (Tuesday) GMT
When the seasons fixtures are released in early May, the NFL lays out all the weeks games, they then go and work with the networks about who should be in the prime time games - Sunday Night and Monday Night. There have been some seasons when things don’t go so well, like in 2018 - a horrible season of MNF - and then times when it all goes swimmingly, like this season. However, when the Bears are on prime time, most people find it hard to watch. The Bears have been boring for a long time now, and for some reason, with the addition of Justin Fields, the networks obviously thought that he could make the Bears interesting… they didn’t factor in how unbelievably terrible a coach Matt Nagy is.
Last week, if not for the Packers special teams trying their best to fumble the game away to the Bears, that game wouldn’t never have been close. This time, if it was not for the Vikings, no one, and I do mean no one, outside of Minnesota or Chicago would give a damn about the outcome of this game.
Thankfully this game also includes the cardiac Vikings. Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer is on record as saying he doesn’t enjoy watching his team play, and why would he. All but one game they have played has been won by 1 score, they either lose by a score or win by one, but never, never do you get a blow out win, and that has to stress you out. What’s worse, is that the Vikings have had a lead of 7 points in every game they have played… but can’t hold on to it. Somehow, they have been up in every game but only won 6 of 13. This may be a game that includes the Bears, but at least we know that the Vikings will make this game exciting, even if the Vikings go up 14, or 21, you know they will make sure the other team gets a way back into it.
For the Vikings fans, get regular check ups with your doctor and try to stay healthy, get some clean food 3 times a week and exercise a minimum of twice a week.
For Bears fans, try to stay positive by watching puppies playing in a field, or talk to your friends and neighbours, if you feel like the clouds wont move, speak to a heath care professional.
Maybe watch less football, too!
Prediction
We know it will be close, but can the Bears really do it? Can they win this? We’d have to see something from Justin Fields that we haven’t seen yet, a complete game. He has flashes of ability, but I get the feeling that Nagy is trying to force him to play a style he’s not suited to. Only recently has he relented and you see Fields running more, taking some chances and trusting himself, if Fields can do that all game, then the Vikings will be obliging in letting him keep the game close.
The Vikings have an offence that about 80% of the NFL would kill for, they just don’t seem to like their QB. I don’t know Kick Cousins, but the people who play football with him sure do get annoyed by him. It’s odd, as he is statistically one of the best players in the league at QB, but for some reason he manages to through 30 wonderful passes and 3 absolute shockers in every game, and for some reason, those 3 bad ones seem to get him in trouble every week.
If it comes down to one score, I would rather take my chances with the Vikings rather than Matt Nagy.
Final Score: Vikings 34 - 28 Bears
Tip
I’d take the Bears at +6.5 just because the Vikings are so inept at beating a bad team. Also, the best player on the field, Justin Jefferson is 8/13 for an anytime TD - he is so good, all Cousins needs to do is get it within 5 yards of him and Jefferson can catch it.