NFL Divisional Playoffs Part 2
Game 1: Rams at Bucs
Kickoff: 3:00pm ET, 12:00noon PT, 8:00pm GMT
The Rams are the best suited team to beat the Bucs. They showed that in week 3 of the regular season when they won 34-24, that wasn’t even as close as the score might suggest. The Rams have what every other team covet when playing Tom Brady, interior pass rush. If you watched the Titans game yesterday you would have noticed that Joe Burrow was sacked mostly because he didn’t have any room to push up in the pocket to evade the rush coming from the sides. This is something that the Rams can do to Tom Brady, and it’s what the Giants did to Tom Brady to win two Super Bowls at his expense.
The Rams might also have the idea defence to match up with the Bucs wide receivers. Mike Evans is like a lightening rod for big plays and getting open, Brady’s main target and human highlight reel is the going to go up against Jalen Ramsey, one of the top corner backs in the league. This might be the main matchup in the game, but it ultimately can come down to another matter, something that the Rams thought they had sorted out during the offseason.
The Rams brought in Matthew Stafford to help them win the Super Bowl, to no longer require the team to coach around the QB, but to game plan for his skills to be the focal point of the offence. That was working, until the wheels started to shake a little. Last week he managed to play past the mistakes that started to worry people at the end of the regular season, but this is the biggest game of his professional career, he can’t slip back into the habit of throwing 8 INTs in 4 games, that can’t happen here. Tom Brady will make them pay for mistakes like no other QB. The Rams have to be perfect, actually, Stafford has to be error free, not fantastic, not winning the game, he just has to play the game he was brought in to do, and not, absolutely not, throw it up like he’s passing to Calvin Johnson!
The Bucs have to play better than they did last week, they might have body bagged the Eagles, but that Eagles team had little to no right playing in the post-season. The Bucs have a lot to improve on, even if they are still playing with backups in major roles, it’s no excuse. The Bucs defence is facing a much bigger task in this game, explosions from WRs and consistent movement with the running backs, the game is going to be hard for the Bucs, but the defence has to tackle cleanly, particularly the defensive line. Putting the Rams in 3rd and 8 or better will give them more chances at forcing Stafford into a mistake. On the flip side, the Rams have to scheme past the best Bucs defenders as best they can, and then put the Bucs in pass first mode, giving them the chance to see Brady force passes to players he has less faith in, provided they can sensibly double team Mike Evans.
Prediction (68-47 after wildcard weekend)
A Rams win looks likely, the only way they don’t win this game, in my eyes, is if Stafford gets confused and forces passes, when he does that, the Rams will start to see that good QBs can be tricked just as much as any other QB, the difference will be if Sean McVay can help the QB adjust to the defences he’s facing.
Final Score: Rams 31 - Bucs 24
Game 2: Bills at Chiefs
Kickoff: 6:30pm ET, 3:30pm PT, 11:30pm GMT
The Bills have been here so many times, they have been on the cusp of victory, the ultimate victory, to only come up short in some painful ways. Last season, this game was the AFC Championship game, a game the Chiefs won rather too easily. It was 31-15 to the Chiefs at the end of the 3rd quarter, after being down 9-0 after the 1st. The Chiefs did what we expected them to do last year, get hot for a 20 minutes spell and score a bunch of points. That happened, and the points that the Bills were scoring just were not enough, they were kicking field goals while the Chiefs were dropping bombs.
This season, a rematch was played out, sort of, in week 5. At the time, the Chiefs were not ‘The Chiefs’, the were more of a question mark, they couldn’t score like before, they had the majority of the same players as before, but the rhythm was off, and you could forgive them for having a Super Bowl hangover - it was an ugly Super Bowl for Chiefs fans. In week 5, the Bills dominated, ploughing through the Chiefs for a 38-20 win. They picked off Mahomes twice, they recovered two fumbles, and they got some redemption for last seasons heartbreak. But really, the only way to get over heartbreak, is by moving past it, improving and conquering your own mistakes. Then you come back stronger and more resilient, and ready to put the beat down on anyone who tries to take what you want.
The Bills have improved, the Chiefs got better (slightly) in defence, but if you put both teams on a scale right now, from this time last year, versus now, the Bills are the most improved. They destroyed one demon, in the utter destruction of New England last week, now they face the next hurdle, the top dog on the road. If the Bills continue on from last week, then this could be the best game of the year.
The Chiefs haven’t been perfect this year, but they haven’t had to be. They put teams to the sword, while also being slightly above their own, average, expectations. What the Bills would be worried about, is the Chiefs are playing their best football now, when it counts the most. Last weeks game was more like a practice session than a football game, the Steelers had less reason than the Eagles to be in the playoffs, so while the Chiefs did well last week, the opponent wasn’t giving you a good idea of their ability going into today. The worry for the Chiefs, is that the defence improved, but, in the last 5 games, they gave up 28 to the Chargers, 31 to the Bengals and 24 to the hapless Broncos. They ship points as much as they score them, was the defence really getting better, or was it just a product of playing average teams? If they do give up points today, the Bills could score upwards of 35.
Prediction
The Bills look like the team to beat in the AFC. The game last week was astounding, they had 100% efficiency, gaining every possible yard available and scoring TDs in every drive. It’s nearly impossible to maintain perfection, but even if they are at 80% of last week, they could win this game easily.
Final Score: Bills 38 - Chiefs 31