NFL Conference Championships Preview
After 20 weeks of NFL football, we come down to the final 4 teams.
If you ever wanted to have some evidence that the NFL is the greatest sport in the world, last week should be enough to convince anyone that the NFL provides the most entertaining product ever put on TV. Last weeks games were all excellent. Even the low scoring game in Green Bay served up some excellent, nerve shatter, entertainment. Of the 4 games last week, 3 were decided by last second, walk-off field goals, the other, had a last second, game tying field goal before an amazing march down field to score the winning touchdown. 4 games with an average winning margin of 3.75 - this is like watching Manchester United winning the Champions League in 1999, then watching the Red Sox come back from 3-0 in 2004 ALCS, then watching the 2006 Rose Bowl and finally watching The Miracle on Ice.
Game 1: Bengals at Chiefs
Kickoff: 3pm ET, 12noon PT, 8pm GMT
The Chiefs played one of their best games of the season last week, they needed to, as they overcame the Bills and Josh Allen who were on fire. Allen is the first NFL QB to throw for 9 touchdowns in two playoff games and not get to the Championship Game. The scoring pace of last week was nearly unheard of, 25 points scored in the final 3 minutes of the game, not including the overtime TD. The Chiefs showed that if you wanted to, you can score a field goal with only 13 seconds of game time. Now, there are many things that confounded people at the end of the game, the Bills didn’t do the expected, analytic approach, and hit the kickoff through the ground, therefore making the Chiefs field it and taking time off the clock, and then when playing defence, why they didn’t cover the middle of the field - all these things are unknown, except of the coaching staff, but the Bills will have to find a way to dust themselves off again and try again next year.
The Chiefs didn’t get lucky last week, but they were fortunate that they were given the window to execute their game as best as they could. Mahomes played great, in fact, the offence is back to it’s powerful best, but the defence was giving up big plays, and this time it wasn’t just Sorensen, Honey Badger was also getting out of position at the wrong time. In a game where they know they will give up big plays, they Chiefs defence needs to work on getting a stop or two, that’s all it really takes to put their offence ahead. If the Chiefs can get one or two extra scoring drives, they might be able to outlast the Bengals.
However, this isn’t your Grandfather’s Bengals. The Bengals took advantage of the uninspiring Titans last week, picking off Tannehill 3 times on way to a final drive field goal from their rookie kicker. The Titans had 9 sacks on Joe Burrow, it could have been 11 if not for penalties on the defence. The Bengals have one major flaw and it’s not going away any times soon. The offence line is just not giving Burrow any protection. While he’s got a quick release, he’s not able to block for himself, he is guilty of taking some sacks, he should know that his internal clock is not the same as it would be with a good/average offensive line, so either the play calling has to improve and give him better ‘quick-outs’ or some better hot reads, or he has to learn to just throw the ball away. Taking sacks on 3rd down that move you out of field goal range or limit you from trying a 4th down conversion could cripple the team tonight.
While Burrow is the main cog in this machine, the Bengals are able to look back and see that, when these teams played near the end of the regular season, getting their wide receivers into space is enough for them to turn upfield and score. Ja’Marr Chase had 266 yards, a record for a rookie, Burrow might not have to make many spectacular throws, just getting the star receiver and running backs into space could be enough to keep the scoring pressure on the Chiefs.
While the game in week 17 might have been entertaining, and saw the Bengals score consistently, it will likely bear no resemblance to today’s game. The pressure is high, the game is in Kansas City, the teams know each other better, the game plan might be similar for the offences, but the defences will be more finely tuned. That will mean that both teams have to come into this game with the ability to adapt, while the Bengals might adopt a more power running game to keep Mahomes off the field, the Chiefs might try and slow the game down themselves to limit the amount of time Ja’Marr Chase is on the field. The Chiefs can be confident of scoring on nearly all drives, if they do, then that scoreboard pressure will be hard to escape when the Bengals take the field. Can Burrow and Co keep up?
Prediction (70-49 after the Divisional round)
Final Score: Bengals 34 - 31 Chiefs
Game 2: 49ers at Rams
Kickoff: 6:30pm ET, 3:30pm PT, 11:30pm GMT
The 49ers offence scored 6 points last week. Their special teams blocked a field goal and scored a touchdown on a blocked punt, that’s a 10 point swing. If not for their special teams, the score would have been 13 - 6 in Green Bay’s favour. Lucky for the 49ers, the Packers special teams are worse than the 49ers offence. Scoring 6 points today will be the end of the 49ers season. A season that only continues because they won this fixture at the end of the regular season to squeeze into the playoffs. In fact, the 49ers have won this fixture 6 times in a row, the Rams coaching staff have been outgunned and out-coached for 6 games in a row, an example of a team being owned, but an NFC Championship game is always different, and the 49ers have some serious issues with their QB.
Jimmy G could have been picked off a few times last week, he didn’t throw the ball very well, the weather wasn’t ideal, but even with the weather, he has to be more accurate. Jimmy G has had plenty of chances to improve his game but he keeps being the reason we all question how good this offence can be. He’s got 2 TDs and 6 INTs in his last 4 games, that kind of production will kill the 49ers in this game, the Rams defence is one of the best in the league, and you can see how good they are when they suffocated the Bucs offence last week. If they reproduce the same quality when they are up against Jimmy G, it’s going to be a long day for him, if he can’t fix the mistakes, I don’t see how the 49ers win, even with the explosiveness from Deebo Samuel, can Jimmy fix it…? We’ll find out.
Deebo Samuel is fast becoming one of the best weapons in football. While he’s been explosive, the Packers where able to limit him to 83 total yards and 0 TDs. The Rams are no slouches, so they will take the game tape and try to follow the example the Packers gave in how to stop Samuel.
The Rams are coming in hot. At home, with their best players playing at the top of their game. Their offence were fired out of a cannon in the first half of last weeks game, it was 20-3 at the half and had it not been for a string of turnovers, the game would have been an even heavier loss. They were on song defensively too, they sacked Brady 3 times, limited the Bucs to three 3rd down conversions and only 51 rushing yards. They forced the Bucs to pass and with a weakened receiving corps the Rams controlled the game.
What this game comes down to, really, is the coaching. Both of these two head coaches have been together with other teams, they know each other very well and they have evolved the offences of many teams, for them to surprise each other would be rare. What has happened, is Shanahan has been able to out scheme McVay. The Rams couldn’t cope with the running game of the 49ers in week 10 or week 18, having been beaten that way twice, the Rams might just sell out against the run and load the box. After the last few games, it hard to think that the 49ers passing offence will worry many teams, and the Rams have a good/great secondary that could be left man-to-man so the Rams could load the box, but if they can’t pressure the 49ers offensive line like the Packers did, it might not be enough.
Prediction
Final Score: 49ers 20 - 27 Rams